Polymarket 每日洞察

2026-07-28

🔥 今日精選

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
買入 NO $0.63優勢 32.0%信心 95%
The current date is July 27, 2026, and the market deadline is July 31, 2026. There are only 4 days remaining. Recent reports indicate an escalation i…
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
買入 NO $0.88優勢 7.5%信心 90%
The Strait of Hormuz is currently reported as closed due to active conflict involving US, Israeli, and Iranian forces. With only 33 days remaining un…
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
買入 NO $0.88優勢 7.5%信心 90%
The blockade was announced by President Trump on July 13, 2026, as a major escalation. With only 3.7 days remaining until the July 31 deadline, there…

📝 每日市場敘事

Polymarket 每日市場摘要：2026年7月27日
今日市場整體情緒偏向保守與觀望，在184項分析中，持有部位佔比最高達108項，顯示交易者在面對地緣政治與市場波動時傾向謹慎。買入「否」（BUY_NO）的意願顯著高於「是」，反映出市場對短期事件發展持懷疑態度。
熱門類別集中在「其他」類別，主要圍繞中東地緣政治局勢。值得關注的機會均指向對伊朗相關衝突與封鎖解除的悲觀預期，其中關於「美國宣布停止伊朗進攻行動」的預測具備最高邊際收益（0.32），市場信心極高，建議採取「買入否」策略。

分析 184 個市場，76 個可執行機會

📊 市場概覽

活躍市場
100
24h 成交量
$25.7M
加密市場情緒
偏空
體育 12 個 · $1.3M加密貨幣 21 個 · $2.4M社群媒體 5 個 · $465.6K政治 9 個 · $671.8K天氣 2 個 · $136.0K經濟 10 個 · $11.8M其他 41 個 · $8.8M

🎯 AI 交易機會

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?
買入 YES入場 $0.62信心 65%優勢 5.5%[加密貨幣]
As of July 28, Bitcoin is trading in a volatile environment with recent reports of institutional ETF outflows and cauti…
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
買入 NO入場 $0.92信心 90%優勢 3.5%[加密貨幣]
With only 4 days remaining in July and the current market price of Bitcoin significantly below the $67,500 threshold, t…
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
買入 YES入場 $0.83信心 75%優勢 2.0%[其他]
Huliaipole has been a long-standing frontline objective in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Given the current date of July 28, …

📈 價格異動 & 成交量排行

價格變動
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?-16.0%26% → 10%AI看跌
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?-6.0%60% → 55%AI看漲
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?+5.5%57% → 62%AI看漲
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?+4.0%66% → 70%AI看漲
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?+4.0%90% → 94%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?-2.9%4% → 1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?-2.4%4% → 2%AI看跌
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?-2.0%6% → 4%AI看跌
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Aug…+1.0%12% → 12%AI看跌
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, …+1.0%12% → 12%AI看跌
成交量排行
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps a…$3.1M
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by…$2.7M
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates aft…$2.3M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps af…$2.2M
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps af…$2.1M
新上架市場
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETYES $0.51[加密貨幣]
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETYES $0.51[經濟]
Solana Up or Down - July 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETYES $0.51[加密貨幣]
BNB Up or Down - July 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETYES $0.51[經濟]
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETYES $0.51[加密貨幣]

🏆 AI 預測績效

勝率
84.5%
校準分數
0.108
已結算
1526
超越基準
+-0.1%
其他 84% (1345)加密貨幣 90% (159)科技 95% (22)

📋 持倉快照

活躍持倉
1
總投入
$25
未實現損益
+$2 (9.4%)
✅ 無風險警報

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